What is Goose?

January 3, 2017
G Team

Goose separates skill from luck in investment outcomes to predict the future performance of active managers and strategies.

Allocators have the most impactful and difficult job in the active investment management ecosystem. Most impactful because an allocator’s selection of mandates and managers has far greater influence on overall performance, and in turn the financial well-being of its stakeholders, than what any single manager does. Most difficult because predicting performance is harder than predicting markets. 

Goose completes the traditional manager selection process

Traditional: Mandate Setting

An investment mandate defines the precise context in which the manager is tasked to make active decisions that add value. The mandate gives rise to an objective skill-less benchmark (a.k.a. montroid), and is commonly the biggest driver of an investment outcome.

Traditional: Attribution Analysis

Attribution-style analysis is a backward-looking descriptive exercise  that profiles salient characteristics of the manager’s historical performance to help allocators determine if the past outcome fits their objectives. It is silent on the question of future performance.

Traditional: Due Diligence

Qualitative due diligence uncovers important risks that data and statistics alone cannot, such as fraud and operational oversights. Diligence done well serves as the main line of defense against untrustworthy managers.

Cutting-Edge: Prediction

Goose helps allocators channel capital towards managers who are likely to continue achieving outcomes similar to the past.

  1. Goose generates an objective, skill-less benchmark to determine true value-add by the manager
  2. For managers with positive true value-add, Goose determines if they were achieved by skill or luck
  3. For skilled managers, Goose monitors for ongoing consistency to predict persistence

Goose at a Glance